Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were no flares during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet levels. Solar wind speed remained elevated due to a coronal hole stream, but gradually declined during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Mar 075
• Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 012/023
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01