Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 2, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There is
only one single, small sunspot on the visible disk. A series of
complex eruptions were observed on LASCO imagery beginning at
28/2330Z. These were likely backsided events, as there is no
apparent frontside source for this CME activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. A high speed coronal hole stream
continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed ranged
from 600 – 700 km/s, but the IMF Bz was predominantly northward.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods through 03 March. Quiet levels are expected on 04
March as the high speed solar wind stream rotates out of a
geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Mar 074
  • Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 075/075/080
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 008/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.