Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Mar 2003
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. There were several
C-class flares today: one C5.1 at 0115 UTC from Region 297
(S16E67), a C2.4 at 0842 UTC and a C3.0 at 1432 UTC from Region 292
(S07 on the West limb), and 4 separate C-Class flares from Region
296 (N13E78). Region 297 (S16E67) was newly assigned today. SXI
images from GOES-12 show yet another new region behind the East limb
at approximately S20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to a high
speed coronal hole stream which has nearly passed. At
geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Mar 138
- Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 145/150/155
- 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 011/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/014
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 012/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/35
- Minor storm 15/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/35/40
- Minor storm 15/20/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
