Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing over the past 24 hours, rising from approximately 400 km/s to approximately 550 km/s, indicating the onset of the coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 02 – 03 June with possible minor storm periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 04 June.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Jun 077
• Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 075/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 015/020-015/020-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/10
• Minor storm 15/15/01
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/20
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05