Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S18E36)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 0243 UTC with associated type II
sweep. The region generated numerous C-class events during the day
as well. Data indicate a modest degree of magnetic complexity and
growth in white light. Elsewhere, new region 773 (S12E76) rotated
into view with mature leader and follower spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 772 should continue to produce C-class activity with an
isolated M-class flare possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 04 June.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jun 094
- Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 095/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 010/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
