Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 1, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Minor B-class activity was
observed in Region 618 (S08W90) as it rotated around the west limb.
Region 621 (S16E25) exhibits some minor magnetic complexity, but
activity was limited to occasional brightness fluctuations and weak
surging. New Regions 623 (N07W23) and 624 (S09E64) were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 621.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. This
weak disturbance is in response to an elevated solar wind stream
(approximately 550 km/s) from a large transequatorial coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal
hole will prolong this weak disturbance for much of the next three
days.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

  • Class M 05/05/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Jun 090
  • Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 090/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 011/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 015/016
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 015/015-015/018-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/45/40
  • Minor storm 20/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.