Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jun 2003
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 365 (S07W84)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 01/1652 UTC as well as a few other
smaller flares during the past day. The most active sunspot group
has been new Region 375 (N11E74) which produced three M1 flares
during the reporting period: at 01/0306 UTC, 01/0711 UTC, and
01/1250 UTC. This region is just visible at the eastern limb as a
D-type sunspot group. More of the region is expected to come into
view by tomorrow.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class activity is expected from both 365, as it
departs the visible disk, and 375 as it comes into view. There
remains a slight chance of a major flare from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods for the duration of the three-day forecast
period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is expected to influence
activity by 03 June.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
- Class M 80/80/80
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 10/01/01
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jun 112
- Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 105/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 018/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 018/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 018/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/75/75
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
