Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk remains spotless. A small, six degree filament near N53W40 disappeared sometime between 30/1811Z and 01/0542Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day (02 July). An increase to quiet to unsettled is expected on the second day (03 July) and predominantly unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on the third day (04 July). The increase is expected because of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Jul 066
• Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 005/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/25
• Minor storm 05/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05