Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jul 2003
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today’s activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from
Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even
be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains
the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed
magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing
part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an
active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady
decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s
to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes were high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jul 131
- Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 130/135/135
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/020
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 013/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/40
- Minor storm 15/15/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 20/20/30
- Major-severe storm 05/05/15
