Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 715 (N05E21)
produced an X1.7 at 01/0031 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep and a Type II radio sweep (760 km/s). A Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) may have been produced in association with this flare, but
could not be confirmed due to the unavailability of solar imagery.
Region 715 has decayed slightly in size and magnetic complexity, and
now maintains a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce M-class and isolated X-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days. Active
conditions are expected on 2-3 January from the effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, and from
potential effects of CME shocks associated with the M-class flares
observed 30 and 31 December. Isolated minor storming mid-day on 3
January and into 4 January is possible from a CME shock associated
with today’s X-class flare. Activity should subside late on 4
January to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
- Class M 50/50/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jan 099
- Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 100/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/019
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/25
- Minor storm 20/25/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
