Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Jan 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 536 (S11E73) has been very active as it rotates around the
east limb. A long duration C8 flare was observed form this region
at 31/2217Z along with numerous minor C-class flares. Currently,
Region 536 is at 380 millionths area coverage but due to limb
proximity, it is unclear as to the extent of its magnetic
complexity. Region 534 (S06E28) has exhibited significant growth
over the past twenty-fours hour increasing to 90 millionths in area
coverage while maintaining its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 534 and 536 are expected to produce C-class flares. There
is a slight chance that they may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole high speed stream continues to produce isolated minor
storm levels and has kept solar wind speeds elevated near 580 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been, on
average, slightly southward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. High speed stream
effects are expected to produce unsettled to active conditions early
on 02 January, then diminish by the end of the day. Quiet to
unsettled levels expected on 03 January. A larger transequatorial
coronal hole is expected on 04 January with active to isolated major
storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Jan 116
- Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 025/032
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-010/015-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/50
- Minor storm 10/05/30
- Major-severe storm 05/01/20
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/40
- Minor storm 10/10/35
- Major-severe storm 05/01/25
