Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 549 (N14E57) continued
to produce B and small C-class flares. The region is now fully in
view as a magnetically simple E-type sunspot group. Other regions
were relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Small flares are expected to continue in Region 549.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 03
February.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Feb 097
- Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 100/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 010/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
