Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 1, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 508 (S19W84)
produced several minor B and C-class flares today. This region is
exiting the west limb. Region 510 (S23W29) underwent steady decay
throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced periods of active conditions due to a
weak recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec

  • Class M 20/15/15
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Dec 143
  • Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 135/130/125
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 008/010-005/010-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.