Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 508 (S19W84)
produced several minor B and C-class flares today. This region is
exiting the west limb. Region 510 (S23W29) underwent steady decay
throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced periods of active conditions due to a
weak recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
- Class M 20/15/15
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Dec 143
- Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 135/130/125
- 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 008/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
