Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with two active periods. Minor storming was observed at mid-latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed remains above 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 02 August. There remains a chance for isolated active periods. The geomagnetic field is expected to abate to quiet for 03 – 04 August.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Aug 068
• Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 014/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/008-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01