Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 1, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares
today with continued decay to the groups total spot area. Region
655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight
increase in spot cluster area measurements. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 655 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock
passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
01/0130Z. This transient is believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652
while it was exiting the west limb. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time
allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast

III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Aug 083
  • Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 005/008-005/008-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.