Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Aug 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Aug 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares
today with continued decay to the groups total spot area. Region
655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight
increase in spot cluster area measurements. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 655 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock
passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
01/0130Z. This transient is believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652
while it was exiting the west limb. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time
allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Aug 083
- Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 005/008-005/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01