Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted to two, low-level B-class flares, both from Region 989 (S11W14). Region 989 has decayed to spotless plage and Regions 987 (S08W75) and 988 (S07W50) were both in decline.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is, however, a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the next three days (02-04 April).

III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Apr 078
• Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01