Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 01 2213 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of a few B-class flares. The largest of these was a B7 at 0040Z from Region 865 (S12E07). This region continues to grow slowly, particularly in the intermediate spots, and it does show some magnetic complexity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 865 during the next three days (02-04 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (02-04 April)

III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Apr 087
• Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05