Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Apr 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
April 1, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
747 (S09E10) underwent growth this period in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. Region 748 (N09E46) is a single HSX alpha spot
group. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief period of active conditions were observed at the high
latitudes in conjunction with a sustained southward Bz occurring
between 01/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated minor
storm conditions may be possible on 3 and 4 April.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Apr 078
  • Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 015/015-015/025-020/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 10/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/15

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/40/40
  • Minor storm 10/20/35
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/20

SpaceRef staff editor.