Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Apr 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
April 1, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Apr 01 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 582
(N14W22) continued to show steady decay while producing the largest
flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1711Z.
The magnetic beta-gamma structures in the lead polarity have become
less organized however, they remain intact. Region 587 (S13E24)
underwent decay in sunspot area during the period. New Region 588
(S12E74) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing a low level
M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled for 2-3 April. Updated LASCO
imagery depicts a full halo CME from the long duration C3 x-ray
flare that occurred at 31/1151Z. A resulting shock passage is
anticipated on 4 April with active to minor storm conditions

III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Apr 113
  • Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 115/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/010-008/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/40
  • Minor storm 10/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.