Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Apr 2003
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. There were only two
C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either
Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with
occasional major storming at high latitudes. The high speed stream
that began early on 30 March continued during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day
two.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Apr 153
- Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 155/150/145
- 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 015/031
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 017/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/30/30
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
