Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01-03-2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 3, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01-03-2003

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Several low level
C-class flares occurred today. The largest optically correlated
event was a C2.0/Sf flare that occurred at 03/1445 UTC from Region
234 (N19W60) as region underwent steady decay today. Region 242
(S08E48) produced several B and C-class flares while showing areal
growth of spot complex through the period. An eruptive prominence
on the west limb (N22W90) occurred at 03/1506 UTC producing a CME
seen on NASA/LASCO imagery that does not appear to be earth
directed. Regions 243 (S19W34), 244 (S15E58), and 245 (N12E74) were
newly assigned today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. A very slight chance of an isolated low level M-class
flare is possible from Region 242.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active to minor storm conditions were observed between 03/1500 to
1800 UTC due to the effects of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on day
one of the forecast period due to high speed stream coronal hole.
Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions as the geo-effective coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Jan 138
  • Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 135/140/145
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 012/015-010/015-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.