Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/2227Z from Region 3141 (N15E75). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 04/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0702Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8029 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 131
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 009/008-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/35
Space weather
