Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 03/1045Z from Region 3293 (N13E35). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 03/1705Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 03/1238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6786 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 May), quiet levels on day two (05 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 55/55/50
Class X 15/10/10
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 156
Predicted 04 May-06 May 154/152/152
90 Day Mean 03 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 008/008-006/005-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/30
Space weather
