Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 01/2232Z from Region 3293 (N12E63). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 01/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5378 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 May) and quiet levels on day three (05 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 157
Predicted 03 May-05 May 156/154/150
90 Day Mean 02 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
space weather
