Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 01/1309Z from Region 3288 (S23W56). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 01/1853Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8863 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 148
Predicted 02 May-04 May 148/146/142
90 Day Mean 01 May 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/15

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