AIP FYI #143: Analysis of Projected Cost of NASA’s Space Initiative

A recently released report by the Congressional Budget Office ( see http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=13884)
provides insight into the budget implications of a manned return to
the moon and robotic support missions to the moon and Mars by NASA
through 2020. The analysis indicates that $32 billion more may be
required to complete these missions than what the space agency now
projects.

This 50-page report, “A Budgetary Analysis of NASA’s New Vision for
Space Exploration,” was requested by the Senate Subcommittee on
Science, Technology and Space. The subcommittee is chaired by Sam
Brownback (R-KS); John Breaux (D-LA) is the Ranking Member. The
Congressional Budget Office is somewhat akin to the Government
Accountability Office and the Congressional Research Service, as it
performs analytical work solely for Congress. CBO was established
during the Nixon Administration to provide Congress with the same
type of budgetary analysis that the Office of Management and Budget
affords the president. CBO is nonpartisan, and does not make
recommendations. The report is available at http://www.cbo.gov/

While not as long as most analytical reports, this CBO report is not
a quick read. As would be expected when viewing the expenditure of
tens of billions of dollars for yet undeveloped technologies for
fifteen years into the future, CBO analysts had to use several
different models to estimate projected program costs. CBO also
examined the impacts that higher than projected costs might have on
other programs in NASA’s portfolio.

In January 2004, the Bush Administration proposed a new vision for
NASA entitled “A Renewed Spirit of Discovery” that was the subject
of several congressional hearings this year (see
http://www.aip.org/fyi/2004/007.html,
http://www.aip.org/fyi/2004/022.html,
http://www.aip.org/fyi/2004/054.html, and
http://www.aip.org/fyi/2004/085.html .) Responding to an
often-voiced criticism that NASA lacked an over-riding mission, the
Administration proposed an ambitious multi-pronged exploration
program. Under this plan, the space station will be completed and
the shuttle retired by 2010, a manned replacement for the shuttle
would be put into use by 2014 with the Russian Soyuz used for crew
transportation in the intervening years, continued robotic missions
to Mars and new lunar robotic missions, and the return of U.S.
astronauts to the moon between 2015 and 2020. NASA proposes to
shift funding both up and down for selected programs, while retiring
the space shuttle five years earlier than originally planned. NASA
projects that it could achieve these objectives with basically the
same annual budget that it now has, adjusted for inflation. NASA’s
plans through 2020 do not include the R&D and procurement of systems
for a lunar outpost or human flights to Mars.

CBO analysts used two different methods – historical program cost
growth and previous analogous programs – to estimate the “potential
upper [cost] bounds” of the exploration program. Using the first
method, the report states:

“CBO’s analysis indicates that NASA’s total funding needs through
2020 might be $32 billion greater than NASA’s current projection
anticipates . . . . An increase of $32 billion would represent a
rise of about 12 percent relative to NASA’s total projected funding
of $271 billion through 2020. It would constitute an increase of
about 33 percent relative to the $95 billion that NASA has projected
for the exploration portion of its program over that same
period.”

Using previous analogous programs as a basis to project program
costs, the report states:

“If NASA’s costs for the exploration vision through 2020 were
similar to the combined costs for the analogous Apollo program and
the more expensive robotic support mission analogies, NASA would
require a total of $61 billion more in funding than its current
projection specifies. . . . If its costs for robotic support
missions were closer to those for the lower-cost robotic analogies,
it would require $40 billion more. The former amount represents an
increase of 23 percent over NASA’s total projected funding of $271
billion; the latter, an increase of 15 percent.”

What are the implications of these higher cost projections? Under
one of the most difficult budget scenarios, the first return to the
moon would not occur until 2027, seven years beyond the target
date. Another possibility would be to take funds from other NASA
programs, including aeronautics and other science missions and
activities. The analysts calculated that:

“If NASA decided to maintain all of its planned robotic support
missions, it could cover higher costs for both the human lunar and
robotic support mission programs by reallocating funds entirely from
those currently projected for aeronautics and other science missions
and activities . . . . For CBO’s exploration cost cases, 24
percent to 46 percent of that category’s projected funding through
2020 would be needed.”

Richard M. Jones

Media and Government Relations Division

The American Institute of Physics

fyi@aip.org
http://www.aip.org/gov

(301) 209-3094