AIP FYI #127: Science & Engineering Indicators: Aging of the S&E Workforce

Data on the nation’s science and engineering (S&E) workforce, from the
National Science Board’s “Science and Engineering Indicators: 2002,” are
highlighted in this FYI and the previous one. Below are selected portions
of Chapter Three of the “Indicators.” While looking at recent trends
(through 1999) in degree production, age of the labor force, and growth of
S&E careers, the report does not attempt to estimate the size of the S&E
workforce over the next 10-20 years, nor how it will compare with expected
job opportunities in S&E fields.

AGING OF WORKFORCE: “The size of the S&E workforce, its productivity, and
opportunities for new S&E workers are all greatly affected by the age
distribution and retirement patterns of the S&E workforce. For many
decades, rapid increases in new entries led to a relatively young S&E
workforce with only a small percentage near traditional retirement ages.
This general picture is rapidly changing as the individuals who earned S&E
degrees in the late 1960s and early 1970s move into what is likely to be the
latter part of their careers.” With the exception of relatively recent S&E
fields such as computer sciences, in 1999 “the greatest population density
of individuals with S&E degrees occurs between ages 40 and 49.” However,
“for all degree levels and fields, only a small portion of the S&E-degreed
labor force was near traditional retirement ages: 11.8 percent overall were
55 or older.”

According to the Indicators, “This circumstance suggests several likely
effects on the future S&E labor force that are important and often
overlooked:

• “Barring large reductions in degree production or similarly large increases in retirement rates, the number of trained scientists and engineers in the labor force will continue to increase for some time. The number of individuals currently receiving S&E degrees greatly exceeds the number of S&E-degreed workers near traditional retirement ages.”
• “Barring large increases in degree production, the average age of S&E-degreed workers will rise.”
• “Barring large reductions in retirement rates, the total number of retirements among S&E-degreed workers will dramatically increase over the next 20 years. This may be particularly true for Ph.D.-holders because of the steepness of their age profile.”

However, the “Indicators” point out that “the retirement behavior of
individuals can differ in complex ways. Some individuals ‘retire’ from a
job while continuing to work full or part time…whereas others leave the
workforce without a ‘retired’ designation from a formal pension plan.” In
1999, half of those with bachelor’s and master’s degrees in S&E fields “left
the workforce entirely by age 65, but Ph.D.-holders did not do so until age
68.”

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS: “During the 2000-2010 period, employment in S&E
occupations is expected to increase about three times faster than the rate
for all occupations…. Employment opportunities for S&E jobs are expected
to increase by about 47 percent (about 2.2 million jobs.)” In physical
science occupations, employment “is expected to increase by about 18 percent
(from 239,000 to 283,000 jobs),” with almost half of those jobs in
environmental sciences.

“The U.S. S&E labor market continues to grow both in absolute numbers and
in its percentage of the total labor market…. In general, labor market
conditions for those with S&E degrees, although always better than for
college graduates as a whole, have improved during the 1990s. Labor market
conditions for new Ph.D. recipients have also been good by most conventional
measures – S&E doctorate-holders are employed and doing work relevant to
their training – but the gains have come in the nonacademic sectors (i.e.,
in most fields, a smaller percentage of recent Ph.D. recipients are
obtaining tenure-track positions).

“The age structure of the U.S. S&E labor force is likely to produce several
major changes in the S&E labor market over the next decade. The number of
individuals with S&E degrees reaching traditional retirement ages is
expected to triple. Despite this, if S&E degree production remains at
current [1999] rates, the number of S&E-trained individuals in the labor
market will likely continue to grow for some time, albeit at a lower rate,
as the number of new graduates continues to exceed the number of retirees.

“The globalization of the S&E labor force is expanding in two ways:
location of S&E employment is becoming more internationally diverse, and S&E
workers are becoming more internationally mobile.”

These new developments “pose challenges,” as noted in the Indicators’
Overview. “As new centers of technological excellence arise, firms and
universities in the United States may find it increasingly difficult to
recruit scientists and engineers from abroad, currently an important source
of supply…. These potential developments bear watching, because they
would affect U.S. policies that support S&T and the education and training
of the domestic S&E workforce.”

Much more information on the nation’s science and engineering enterprise
can be found in the two-volume “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2002.”
Both volumes are available on the web at
http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/pdfstart.htm. A CD-ROM of the
Indicators can be ordered, free of charge, from the same site. For a
hardcopy version, contact paperpubs@nsf.gov or call (301) 947-2722.

Audrey T. Leath

Media and Government Relations Division

The American Institute of Physics

fyi@aip.org

(301) 209-3094

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