China’s New Commercial Launch Site – Something Big is Brewing Down in Hainan
With all four of China’s launch sites all controlled by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and with very strict limits on access to foreigners or even Chinese civilians, it is not easy being a commercial launch company in China trying to access China’s existing, notoriously-temperamental launch infrastructure. In addition to being politically tricky, China’s launch pads were not designed for regular launches of reusable liquid-powered rockets, and their location relative to China’s existing industrial bases is not ideal. Finally, China’s existing launch sites are busy with state-owned launches, and don’t have a lot of incentive to make great efforts to attract commercial launch companies. That’s why China is now working on new launch sites specifically geared towards commercial activity.
Over a surprisingly short timeframe, the emphasis on state-owned launches has started to change, with at least two commercial launch sites being built. The first is the Oriental Spaceport at Yantai, Shandong Province, which is being built with apparent support from the local Chinese Academy of Sciences, as well as the provincial government. The second is the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, being built adjacent to the existing Wenchang Space Launch Site on Hainan, an island province to the south of Mainland China. While the Oriental Spaceport is an impressive project that will one day merit its own article, today we will focus on the second launch site, because something big is brewing down in Hainan.
A backgrounder of Hainan
Before digging into the new commercial launch site at Hainan, it’s important to provide some broader context on the place. Hainan Island is a relatively undeveloped province of China (GDP per capita being in the bottom 25 percent of provinces). Its location as an island has made the Central Government more willing to experiment with economic reform, and more recently, Hainan became home to China’s 4th and newest launch center, Wenchang Space Launch Site. Wenchang saw its first launch in June of 2016, and its location relatively near the equator and near the sea makes it China’s spot for the heaviest launches, including that of the Chinese Space Station, Tiangong.
Wenchang has several logistical advantages, but two are the most obvious:
- Coastal location. Already today, China ships Long March 5 and Long March 7 rockets from Tianjin to Hainan via sea, as both the manufacturing site and launch site are coastal. Longer-term, companies such as CAS Space and GeeSpace plan to use their industrial bases in coastal Guangdong and Zhejiang province to ship to Hainan by sea.
- Free trade zone. In the short term, this likely means less, but Hainan’s status as an economically undeveloped island makes it a favored site for economic reforms and development programs. Its status as a free trade zone could mean that in the future, there might be preferential regulations for foreign joint ventures (JVs), which could allow foreign firms to set up operations near associated launch infrastructure. At a minimum, it should give the local government a bit more leeway in making creative policies to attract companies to Hainan.
What’s actually being built in Hainan?
In addition to the existing Wenchang Launch Center, which is directly controlled by the PLA, there is a commercial launch site being built at Hainan. The existing state-run launch site at Wenchang has become a major spot for Chinese space tourism, with Hilton Hotels having built a hotel within sight of the launch center, and with Chinese space tourists regularly making pilgrimages to Hainan to see launches from Wenchang. This cult following has developed ever since the Wenchang Space Launch Site began launches in 2016. More recently, activities have focused on the commercial launch site, of which construction began in mid-2022, with an initial goal of building a “world-class, market-oriented space launch site to further enhance the launch capability of China’s civil and commercial launch vehicles,” according to the Hainan International Commercial Space Launch Company, which is building the spaceport. At the time, it was revealed that the development of the launch site was being driven by a JV involving the Hainan Government, CASC, CASIC, and China SatNet — a who’s who of the top players in the Chinese space sector.
In short, Hainan is building a major commercial launch site alongside existing state-run facilities, in a free trade zone, with several of the most blue chip of blue chip investors and partners having seemingly signed up. The project is, in other words, a major one, with major support from the highest of echelons. A February 2023 report from Hainan News provided updates on the commercial launch site, namely that there would be four launch pads: two for liquid-fueled rockets (of which one is for rockets using kerolox and one for those using methalox), and two for solid-fueled rockets. The entire project represents an investment of some ¥4 billion (US $650 million), and construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2023. Joint training and testing will occur throughout Q1 2024, and the first launch will occur sometime during the first half of the year. Each launch pad will have a launch capacity of 16 rockets per year, and the launch site also includes rocket assembly and satellite manufacturing centers, hoping to vertically integrate a larger part of the industrial base into the launch site.
What’s been going on recently?
There have been several very big events at Hainan recently. First, around the middle of May, we saw Wu Yitian, the Chief Designer for CALT of the Hainan International Commercial Launch Center, confirm that the first launch of the China SatNet/Guowang constellation will take place from the Hainan International Commercial Launch Center in H1 2024. Not only that, but Wu confirmed that the launch would be the first launch at the new launch site, inaugurating a major project (the site at Hainan) with the first launch of another maybe even more major project (the SatNet constellation, commonly called “China’s Answer to Starlink”). As of yet, there’s no indication of how many satellites might be planned for the launch, but likely it would involve batches of multiple tens of satellites.
In a less splashy, but perhaps even more significant development, we saw in early May 2023 an announcement that the Hainan International Commercial Launch Center will be able to accommodate more than ten types of rockets, with the launch center planning to use a “3-flats” approach, meaning that the rocket is assembled and transported vertically to the pad, with no need for a Vehicle Assembly Building. In a graphic published by Hainan News, we saw several variants of the Pallas-1 rocket from Galactic Energy, as well as several rockets from CASC. Such interoperability could be an interesting differentiator, with launch service providers able to more efficiently work together with their launch site. It’s also a likely indicator that when the launch site does come into commercial service in H1 2024, it will have a backlog of some launch service providers.
What does this mean moving forward?
Ultimately, China appears serious about diversifying its launch infrastructure, and a commercial launch site at Hainan would have major implications domestically and in the international launch market. Most immediately, a successful commercial launch site at Hainan would create another credible option for Chinese commercial launch companies. Today, one of the major challenges faced by these players is access to launch sites, and a successful commercial launch site would relieve a major bottleneck as such.
Further down the road, an integrated space industrial base, possibly with satellite and rocket AIT facilities and other upstream infrastructure, could make it easier for foreign customers to access Chinese manufacturing and launch services. This could also make Chinese suppliers more attractive, particularly if Hainan finds a “sweet spot” of balancing regulatory concerns with industrial and commercial interests.
Either way, one thing that’s clear in the near-term is that something big is going on at Hainan. China’s space sector is on the rise, and one of the more critical levers that they plan to pull on is the development of commercialized launch infrastructure. The long-term future of Hainan Commercial Satellite Launch Center is unclear, but its launch pads could soon be hosting launch services for a rocket manufacturer near you.
