Teal Forecasts Recovery of Commercial Satellite Launch Market in 2002-2003

Teal Group today announced
completion of a new survey of the commercial satellite launch market for
2000-2003 at the US Space Foundation’s International Space Symposium being
held in Toulouse, France, during September 10-13, 2002. The study forecasts
33 and 31 commercial satellites will be launched to earth orbit in 2002 and
2003 respectively.

Conducted as part of the World Space Systems Briefing, the study breaks
out the commercial satellites launched worldwide by manufacturer and launch
service provider, as well as by satellite and launch vehicle models and costs.
Its purpose is to gauge recent trends in the market and offer a near-term
outlook.

“One of the things we wanted to find out was how soon the market would
recover from the poor year it had in 2001, when only 16 commercial satellites
were launched,” says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal’s World Space
Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence
service. (For more information on the service, call 703-385-1992, ext. 104; e-
mail dcornell@tealgroup.com; or fax 703-691-9591).

“We now have enough data to be able to forecast a 52% increase in both the
number and value of satellites that will be launched this year, compared to
last year, and the market should remain steady through 2003.”

In 2000, there were 40 commercial satellites launched. Thirty-three of
these were launched to geostationary orbit (GEO) and the rest to low earth
orbit (LEO). The total value of the satellites was $4.24 billion. The cost
of launching these satellites was approximately $2.29 billion. In 2001, the
value of the commercial satellites launched dropped by 61%, to $1.65 billion,
while the costs of procuring launch services for these satellites declined by
53%, to $1.08 billion.

“The market probably bottomed out in 2001,” notes Caceres. “While we do
not see a boom in the number of commercial satellites being launched anytime
in the next couple of years, we think the numbers will stay in the upper 20s
or lower 30s, including a handful of small LEO satellites.”

Of the 120 satellites identified in the survey, 95% of them are
communications satellites and 5% are for earth imaging. Of the total, 84% are
GEO satellites and 16% are LEOs.

                   Number of Commercial Satellites Launched

    (in units)            2000      2001      2002*     2003*
                            40        16        33        31

                   Value of Commercial Satellites Launched

    (in $ billions)       2000      2001      2002*     2003*
                          4.24      1.65      3.42      3.76

         Value of Launch Services for Commercial Satellites Launched

    (in $ billions)       2000      2001      2002*     2003*
                          2.29      1.08      1.90      2.15

    * Teal Group forecast

Teal Group Corp. is an aerospace and defense consulting firm which
provides market intelligence to government and industry. It is based in
Fairfax, Virginia.