Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity: 22 Feb

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Feb 22 2255 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

: : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : :

SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z

TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  THREE M1 X-RAY EVENTS

OCCURRED FROM REGION 8869 (S18W87).  THEY WERE:  AN M1/2B AT

21/2319Z, AN M1/SF AT 22/0856Z, AND AN M1/SF AT 22/1133Z.  SEVERAL

MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.

REGION 8882 (S16E57) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH IN BOTH AREA AND SPOT

NUMBER DURING THE PERIOD.  THE PENTICTON 10.7 CENTIMETER FLUX IS

ESTIMATED TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED VALUES.  NEW REGION 8883 (N13E60)

WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE.  THE POSSIBLITY OF M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED

TO DECREASE AS REGION 8869 ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE

PERIOD, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE

PERIOD TO DUE THE EFFECTS OF A RETURNING HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE

STREAM.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB

CLASS M    30/25/25

CLASS X    05/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           22 FEB 164

PREDICTED   23 FEB-25 FEB  145/135/130

90 DAY MEAN        22 FEB 164

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  015/015

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  010/008

PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  010/012-015/015-015/023

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/25/25

MINOR STORM           05/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/35/35

MINOR STORM           10/15/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05