Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Feb
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Feb 21 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 052 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 FEB 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS,
BOTH OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAS AN M2 AT 20/2207, AND THE SECOND WAS AN M1 AT 21/0836.
SEVERAL OTHER MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO REPORTED. NEW REGION
8881 (N19E53), AND 8882 (S16E69) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD
OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 21/1500-1800Z DUE TO A
SHORTLIVED DISTURBANCE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD, AND MAY BE RELATED TO
A TYPE II SWEEP THAT OCCURRED BACK ON 18 FEBRUARY.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
CLASS M 30/30/25
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 21 FEB 152
PREDICTED 22 FEB-24 FEB 145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN 21 FEB 164
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB 005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB 016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB 015/025-010/012-015/015
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/25/20
MINOR STORM 15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 40/30/25
MINOR STORM 25/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/05/05
