Press Release

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 May 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
May 2, 2000
Filed under

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 123 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8971 (N19W74)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 02/1451Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 250 SFU
TENFLARE. OTHERWISE, ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8970 (S13W78) OR 8971.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE SOLAR WIND WAS OBSERVED WHEN A TRANSIENT PASSED THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT APRROXIMATELY 02/1040Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED FROM AROUND 600 TO MOMENTARILY OVER 900 KM/SEC. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED SLOWLY
SUBSIDED AND LEVELED OFF AROUND 600 KM/SEC DURING THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD; THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
CLASS M 35/30/25
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 MAY 153
PREDICTED 03 MAY-05 MAY 150/145/145
90 DAY MEAN 02 MAY 189
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY 012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY 014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 40/30/25
MINOR STORM 25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 60/40/35
MINOR STORM 30/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.