Press Release

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 May 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
May 7, 2000
Filed under

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 128 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. ONLY MINOR
B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS AND SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED. SEVERAL SMALL
REGIONS EMERGED. THE DISK REGIONS WERE ALSO SMALL AND EXHIBITED
MINOR EVOLUTION.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A VERY LOW
TO LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CURRENT REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. REGIONS NEARING THE EAST
LIMB MAY RAISE C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. BRIEF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED IN THE 07/0300-0600Z PERIOD. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY SLOWLY DECLINED TO BELOW 400 KM/S NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ENERGETIC (GT 10 MEV) PROTON FLUXES REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE BACKGROUND DURING THE PERIOD BUT WERE DECLINING.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. NO RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
CLASS M 01/01/01
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 07 MAY 131
PREDICTED 08 MAY-10 MAY 133/136/138
90 DAY MEAN 07 MAY 187
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 007/010-007/008-007/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 10/10/10
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 10/10/10
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.