NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Mar 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 090 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8936 (S16E58)
PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M3/1N EVENT AT 30/1607Z. THE TOTAL DURATION
OF THE M3 EVENT WAS ONLY 14 MINUTES. REGION 8936 ALSO PRODUCED AN
M1/SF EVENT EARLIER AT 30/1245Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 30/0714Z. SEVERAL OTHER MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD FROM REGION 8936 AND 8925 (S18W20).
REGION 8924 (N10W28) AND 8925 EACH BECAME MORE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX
WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. FURTHER GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED IN REGION 8936. FOUR NEW REGIONS, 8938 (S07E56), 8939
(N22E72), 8940 (N13E65), AND 8941 (N25E54) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 30 MAR 206
PREDICTED 31 MAR-02 APR 205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN 30 MAR 180
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR 009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR 008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/25
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/30
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
