NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 28 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 088 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z

TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8926 (S10W84)

PRODUCED AN M3/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 28/0137Z.  SEVERAL OTHER MINOR

C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED FROM REGION 8926 AND 8924 (N10W01).  WHILE

REGION 8926 NEARS THE WEST LIMB, REGIONS 8921 (S17W30), 8924, AND

8933 (N16E20) ALL DISPLAYED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.  NO NEW

REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR

CLASS M    35/30/30

CLASS X    10/05/05

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           28 MAR 201

PREDICTED   29 MAR-31 MAR  195/190/190

90 DAY MEAN        28 MAR 177

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAR  003/005

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAR  005/005

PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAR-31 MAR  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/20/20

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/25/25

MINOR STORM           10/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01