NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Feb
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Feb 28 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 059 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 FEB 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NO MORE THAN CLASS C
FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN TYPICAL OF THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE.
VELOCITIES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 600 TO 700 KM PER SECOND RANGE.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
OFF-AXIS EFFECTS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 26 FEBRUARY AND A
TYPE II SHOCK REPORTED AT 28/1027 Z HAVE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
ALERT THRESHOLD FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 FEB-02 MAR
CLASS M 70/70/70
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 28 FEB 219
PREDICTED 29 FEB-02 MAR 220/220/220
90 DAY MEAN 28 FEB 167
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB 006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB 012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 FEB-02 MAR 012/010-012/025-012/012
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 FEB-02 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 07/06/06
MINOR STORM 03/03/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 09/07/08
MINOR STORM 04/04/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
