NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 087 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 MAR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8926 (S09W72)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 27/0518Z. OTHER NUMEROUS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGION 8926.
DECAY WAS NOTED IN REGION 8926; HOWEVER, SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED
IN REGIONS 8924 (N10E12) AND 8925 (S18E20). NEW REGIONS 8933
(N15E33), AND 8934 (N21E53) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MINOR
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES NO
STRONG EARTH-DIRECTED CME IN PROGRESS FROM THE 25 MARCH EVENT. ANY
SIGNIFICANT GEOEFFECTIVE CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENT ON 25 MARCH ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
CLASS M 50/40/40
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 27 MAR 205
PREDICTED 28 MAR-30 MAR 205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN 27 MAR 177
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR 003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR 008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR 010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/25
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 35/35/35
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
