Press Release

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Mar

By SpaceRef Editor
March 2, 2000
Filed under

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 02 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 062 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. AN IMPULSIVE CLASS X1
FLARE OCCURRED IN REGION 8882 (S15W58) BEGINNING AT 02/0828Z
FOLLOWED BY A CLASS M5 EVENT IN THE SAME REGION BEGINNING AT 02/1335Z.
TYPE II RADIO BURSTS OCCURRED IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH EVENTS. BOTH
EVENTS PRODUCED ONLY LOW TO MODERATE TOTAL ENERGY IN TERMS OF THEIR
RADIO AND X-RAY BURSTS AND THEIR DURATION. IMPRESSIVE CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LIMB OF THE SUN FOLLOWED BOTH FLARES.
THE LATER CME WAS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER EJECTION OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8882 AND REGION 8891 (S15W04) REMAIN COMPLEX
AND POTENTIAL SOURCES OF MAJOR FLARES. THE SUN APPEARS TO BE IN AN
UNSETTLED MODE. MINOR SHORT-LIVED SUNSPOT GROUPS ARE APPEARING AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ON THE DISK AND SMALL FLARES ARE OCCURRING IN MANY
OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH. CLASS M EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MORE CLASS X EVENTS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WAS A VERY
SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF ENERGETIC PROTONS GREATER THAN 10 MEV MEASURED
BY GOES FOLLOWING THE CLASS X EVENT EARLIER TODAY. ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS GREATER THAN 2 MEV AS MEASURED BY GOES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT HAVE REMAINED BELOW ALERT THRESHOLDS TODAY.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE POTENTIAL FOR GEOMAGNETIC
STORMS IS UNCLEAR. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
PRIMARILY EARTH-DIRECTED, BUT THEY MAY HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE
IMPACT IN TERMS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST IS FOR ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF A MINOR TO MAJOR STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN ENERGETIC PARTICLES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF SHOCKS FROM THE CME
TODAY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAR-05 MAR
CLASS M 65/65/65
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF YELLOW
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 MAR 213
PREDICTED 03 MAR-05 MAR 210/210/205
90 DAY MEAN 02 MAR 169
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAR 016/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAR 012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAR-05 MAR 012/012-025/028-025/025
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAR-05 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 12/40/40
MINOR STORM 05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/10
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/40/40
MINOR STORM 05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.