NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 17 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 077 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z

TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W49)

PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 17/1125UT. FURTHER DECAY AND MAGNETIC

SIMPLIFICATION IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E05)

CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE A C6/1F AT

16/2215UT. NEW REGIONS 8915 (N23E62) AND 8916 (N12E74) ROTATED

AROUND THE EAST LIMB.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS MOST

LIKELY IN REGIONS 8906 AND 8910. A SMALL CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE

REMAINS IN REGION 8906.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    05/05/05

PROTON     05/05/05

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           17 MAR 192

PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  180/180/185

90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR 175

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  002/004

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/006

PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  005/008-005/008-010/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01