NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 11 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z

TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E31)

PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 11/0927Z. TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A

POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION EXIST IN THIS REGION WHICH ALSO

PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/2318Z AND A C6 FLARE AT 11/0415Z. NEW REGIONS

8909 (S18W20) AND 8910 (S29E76) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE

MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8906.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE

PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE

CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     05/05/05

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           11 MAR 203

PREDICTED   12 MAR-14 MAR  200/195/195

90 DAY MEAN        11 MAR 174

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  008/010

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/012

PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/012-007/010-005/010

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/20/20

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                40/30/25

MINOR STORM           15/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01