NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 10 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 070 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z

TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS WITH NUMEROUS

C-CLASS SUBFLARES OBSERVED. REGION 8906 (S16E44) CONTINUED AS THE

LARGEST OF THE VISIBLE SPOT GROUPS, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGES. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH

WAS A C7/SF AT 10/1758UT. REGION 8900 (S16W63) CONTINUED TO DECAY

AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE

STABLE.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT

LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           10 MAR 203

PREDICTED   11 MAR-13 MAR  200/195/180

90 DAY MEAN        10 MAR 174

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  003/005

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  007/006

PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  007/007-007/007-007/010

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/20/20

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/25/25

MINOR STORM           15/15/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01