NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 May 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 May 01 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 122 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 MAY 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z

TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M1 FLARE

FROM REGION 8971 (N20W61). ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT WAS OPTICALLY

UNCORRELATED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATORIES, THE FLARE LOCATION WAS

VERIFIED BY EIT AND SXT INSTRUMENTS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED

DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8981

(S23E30).

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE

PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, 01/15-1800UT AND

01/18-2100UT.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD, DUE TO A POSSIBLY EARTH-DIRECTED

CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON 30 APRIL.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY

CLASS M    30/30/30

CLASS X    01/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           01 MAY 158

PREDICTED   02 MAY-04 MAY  160/155/155

90 DAY MEAN        01 MAY 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR  010/011

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY  012/012

PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY  010/012-015/020-012/012

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/30/20

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/40/30

MINOR STORM           05/10/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01