NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 17 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9775

(S06W99) produced isolated C-class subflares as it crossed the west

limb. Region 9782 (N06W08) showed a minor increase in area, but

produced no flares. It retained a moderate degree of magnetic

complexity with mixed polarities evident in its leader spots. Region

9785 (N10E01) showed spot growth and a minor increase in magnetic

complexity within its trailer portion, but produced no flares. New

Region 9787 (S08E85) rotated into view during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels. Regions 9782 and 9785 appear capable of

producing isolated low-level M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly

reached high levels during the latter half of the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2

MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate

levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Jan 212

Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  215/215/220

90 Day Mean        17 Jan 224

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  007/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  008/008-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/25

Minor storm           10/10/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01