Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 26/0551Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0008Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (27 Sep, 29 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day two (28 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 067
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 016/028-030/045-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 35/40/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 65/75/60