Press Release

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
September 24, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 24/1855Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 24/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1547Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 067
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 010/012-008/008-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/40
Minor Storm 10/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/65

SpaceRef staff editor.