Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 02/2054Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 337 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 074
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20