Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0431Z from Region 3053 (N16W48). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 14/0610Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 169
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
