Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/0109Z from Region 3415 (S09E35). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 24/2221Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2230Z. Electrons greate r than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 139
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 140/138/140
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 005/005-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
space weather
