Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 08/0146Z from Region 3272 (S21E50). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0505Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2525 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 136
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 168

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 006/005-006/005-010/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/30

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