Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0627Z from Region 3272 (S22E63). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 07/0200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1577 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 136
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
Space weather
